Plans for Gaza’s ‘Day After’ Seem Ever Distant

As the war in Gaza grinds on, there is increasing talk of some “day after” formula for the broken territory. But that notion is an ephemeral one — there is not going to be a bright line between war and peace in Gaza, even if some sort of negotiated settlement is reached.

Israel has made it clear that it will not subcontract security along its southern border to anyone else, and Israeli military officials say their forces will come in and out of Gaza based on intelligence for a very long time to come, even after troops finally withdraw.

“The whole conceit of ‘the day after’ has to be retired,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. official at the Carnegie Endowment. “It’s misleading and dangerous,” he said, because there will be no clear dividing line “between the end of Israeli military operations and a relative stability that allows people to focus on reconstruction.”

There are a variety of sketchy ideas — “plans” would be too specific a word — for what happens in the aftermath of hostilities. But there is a growing understanding that any sustainable settlement would require a regional deal involving countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Qatar.

Inevitably such a deal would have to be led by the United States, Israel’s most trusted ally. Most officials and analysts assume it would require new governments both in Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which partially governs the West Bank but is considered stale and corrupt, an indication of the long road ahead.

Israeli soldiers walking in the central Gaza Strip this month, during an escorted tour by the military.Credit...Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times

As a starting point, the American special envoy, Brett McGurk, is touring the region, his focus on “the potential for another hostage deal, which would require a humanitarian pause of some length to get that done,” according to a White House spokesman, John Kirby. Mr. McGurk will be joined in the coming days by C.I.A. Director William J. Burns, officials familiar with the talks said.

Mr. McGurk’s efforts are complicated, working through Qatar, which sends messages to Hamas leaders. Even with an agreement in principle between Israel and Hamas, the two sides will have to negotiate a phased exchange of hostages, women and children first, for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

To get all the hostages released, including soldiers, would require the controversial release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, including those who have been convicted of murdering Israelis. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, was just such a case, let out in a previous prisoner exchange in 2011 after 23 years in jail.

Then there is the question of Mr. Sinwar and other Hamas leaders, if they are alive — will they go into exile as part of any settlement? For now, Hamas has rejected the idea.

But a first hostage deal “is the sine qua non of the administration’s larger regional deal,” said Martin S. Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel.

That, American officials hope, could open the way for broader negotiations. They would include moderate Sunni Arab states who have no great love for Hamas and its main backer, Shiite Iran, and who are concerned by Iran’s growing power.

While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel supports efforts for a hostage deal, he is also campaigning for his political survival and has opposed a significant pillar of President Biden’s larger concept.

Protesters in Tel Aviv on Wednesday calling for the release of hostages who were taken on Oct. 7.Credit...Oded Balilty/Associated Press

Mr. Biden has said that he would like a “revitalized Palestinian Authority” eventually running Gaza as a stage toward an eventual “two-state solution” — an independent Palestine, largely demilitarized, alongside Israel and committed to a lasting peace.

Mr. Netanyahu is portraying himself as the one person who can prevent the Americans from imposing a Palestinian state on a traumatized Israel or significant restrictions on the Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank that is gradually absorbing Palestinian land.

But the Americans believe they may have important leverage over Israel and Mr. Netanyahu to move ahead. Saudi Arabia, the key regional actor, has indicated that it wants to continue a path toward normalization with Israel in return for American security guarantees against Iran, itself a controversial demand.